The Trade Desk ($TTD)
If only you knew the power of the buy-side
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Today I will be completing an in-depth analysis on The Trade Desk TTD . Within, I will break down the opportunity that TTD has in front of it and outline some important specifics of the ecosystem that the company operates within. In addition, I will delve into the company’s technology, analyze the company’s most recent financials, and discuss some positive and risk-based factors alike that are worth pondering with regards to the company’s future. The format of this research, as per usual, can be seen outlined below. Please feel free to skip ahead to the sections of the report that you feel will add the most value to your research process:
5.0 How TTD makes $$$
7.0 Key Performance Indicators
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Consumerism has taken the Western World hostage over the course of the last few hundred years. Defined loosely, this term encompasses a general social and economic order that encourages the acquisition of both goods and services in ever-increasing amounts. Capitalism, at its very core, is fundamentally reliant on these behaviour patterns, with the constant and widespread itch for more spurring endless arrays of both corporate and nationwide growth and enrichment.
When delving into the advertising space as a whole for this deep-dive, I couldn’t help but come back to the powerful words written by Paul Kingsnorth about his experience on a vacation last September:
It was a nice little place, and all of a sudden I saw it for what it was. I saw what was happening here, and by extension everywhere, and within me and all of us. I saw that everything around me was dedicated solely to the immediate gratification of the senses.
There it was, all of a sudden, right in my face. Eating. Drinking. Buying colourful things. Boats, vans, bikes, beer, steak, new clothes, second hand clothes, burgers, chocolate bars, old castles, stately homes, cappuccinos, pirate adventure parks, golf courses, spas, tea rooms, pubs. Food, drink, fun, entertainment, games, probably some sex somewhere in the mix. All of it came together suddenly into a kind of package of sensory overload and I saw that this was what we were, what we had become without really thinking or planning it. Stimulating the senses, then reacting to the stimulus: this was what our society was all about. Feeding the pleasure centres, spending and spending to keep it all coming at us.
Linking this excerpt to experiences garnered within my own life, I couldn’t help but think of the sheer magnitude of advertisements we all come across on a daily basis, directed at us in order to spur a desire for stimulation by way of consumerism. A recent study outlined the fact that on average, individuals encounter more than 4,000 advertisements each day. This number seems staggering, however, if you step back and think about the volume of brand labels, ads, etc. present in mediums ranging from print and video, to CTV, social media, radio and podcasting, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched. Advertising has become the steadfast driver of the consumeristic and capitalistic behaviour of our society. In order to keep the hedonic treadmill turning, businesses are allocating an increasing amount of capital towards the obtainment of consumer attention, and if done correctly, non-discretionary spending. These trends are only growing stronger with time, and with the expanding universe of screen real estate, digital ecosystems and virtual environments that can be riddled with advertisements, the companies that stand poised to benefit from a tailwind of undoubtable strength are the ones that offer services and platforms centred around the provision of said advertisements to their constituents. TTD stands to be one of those companies. Through the operation of a self-service, cloud-based platform that provides customers access to functionality allowing for the optimization, creation and management of digital advertising campaigns, situated across formats ranging display to audio and video, located across mediums ranging from computers to mobile devices and CTV, TTD’s technology is both valuable and sought after, to say the least.
With this brief rambling in mind, let’s quantify the exact opportunity that TTD has in front of it.
Before delving into the dynamics and intricacies of the advertising industry as a whole, particularly the ones that TTD aims to target with active efforts of betterment, it is worth staying surface level for a moment to quantify just how big the digital advertising space has become, as well as how programmatic advertising fits into the picture. According to eMarketer, Global Digital Ad Spend is anticipated to grow to approximately $876.10B by 2026, representing a CAGR of approximately 11% within the 2021-2026 forecast period, as outlined below:
These numbers take into consideration two underlying happenings: a larger majority of total media ad spending is anticipated to occur through digital mediums, and growth is occurring despite the overall YoY % change of total spend slowing:
It is thus relatively reasonable to conclude, that even despite waning consumer sentiment and deteriorating financial conditions, which have led to budgets being slashed and spending controls being instilled within business processes, that ad spending is a crux of the modern corporation, one that will likely continue to grow in a substantial manner as more and more of consumer behaviour is conducted through digital mediums.
With the widespread adoption of digital advertising, there arises some key happenings that TTD has taken note of and aims to both target and take advantage of. First off, humanity is living an increased amount of time digitally, with the average global screen time reaching approximately 6 hours and 12 minutes per day, with areas of the western world exhibiting highly developed GDPs possessing values that are much higher than that:
Evidently, having advertising methods that function and cater towards the attention economy, so to speak, has become increasingly important. With that in mind, an issue arises, particularly with the fragmentation of said attention. Delving deeper, despite notable amounts of hours being spent digitally, the actual behaviour patterns of users themselves is widely sporadic, with the average person spending approximately 2 hours and 27 minutes on different social media platforms each day, and the remainder of the screen time itself scattered across tv streaming services, websites, miscellaneous applications, etc. In addition, total screen time oftentimes doesn’t occur through only one sole device, and ranges from televisions and smartphones, to tablets and computers. As such, these dynamic behaviour patterns pose problems for companies attempting to successfully target audiences, presenting opportunities for entities aiming to provide associated solutions that help companies advertise across a variety of mediums.
Staying on one-specific consumption medium for a moment, the rise of connected television (CTV) at the expense of its linear television predecessor warrants attention. In general, linear television advertisers suffer from the inability to funnel audiences down to their specific characteristics, and often have to advertise vaguely to specific demographics or groups of individuals that watch particular programs at specific times (think cable advertising). CTV on the other hand, of which lives through the streaming medium, allows for more targeted advertising, and potential down-funnel, direct to consumer and direct response conversions as a result. With the rise of this medium, as well as the “cord-cutting” phenomenon, it is not unreasonable to assume that increased amounts of users will continue to lean towards this television consumption method, thus resulting in heightened advertising activity in the space as a result. Quantifying these assertions, US CTV Ad Spending is anticipated to reach approximately $29.50B in 2024, representing 7.6% of total media spending in the region, in comparison to approximately 2.7% in 2019.
With all of these digital trends, it is quite obvious that advertising’s inner mechanisms should cater towards these dynamics. Enter Programmatic Advertising. In comparison to archaic, monotonous processes of companies buying advertising space, programmatic advertising utilizes data and automation in conjunction with one another in order to expedite the process of ad purchases, all while increasing both the effectiveness of associated campaigns for purchasers, and increasing the value of the inventories for the associated owners. Traditional processes typically include the need for proposal requests from human parties, negotiations, and the manual execution/insertion of associated orders, whereas programmatic advertising occurs via real-time auctions and allows for purchases to buy per ad impression, targeting their audience as they see fit. With ever-increasing hosts of data, TTD is leveraging their technological prowess in order to improve scale, execution speed, advertiser ROI etc., of which will likely continue to cement TTD within this space, but more on that later. For now, let’s take a look at how TTD fits within the modern programmatic advertising space and delve into the technology that drives their underlying functionality.
Before discussing what TTD’s products and technology offer their customers, we have to understand the general functionality of programmatic advertising itself. The space can be split into four main constituents, as outlined below:
BSPs, also commonly known as Demand Side Platforms (DSPs) allow for advertisers to buy ad space, of which is made available by media publishers through advertising exchanges. Advertisers can leverage data contained within the DSP, such as website details, consumer characteristics etc., in order to successfully target their audiences. In addition, advertisers can specify targeting preferences and ad inventory details, which will allow for the BSP to obtain opportunities within the ad exchange or network that meet these specifications.
SSPs, also commonly known as Supply Side Platforms, are a programmatic advertising constituent that assist with the coordination and management of the supply of advertising itself, as well as the associated distribution. In essence these platforms allow for the owners of digital media and publishers to sell their ad space. This side of the advertising transaction is one of the key drivers of real time bidding in the programmatic advertising space, a process where ads are bought and sold in real time on a per-impression basis in instant auctions, in comparison to more archaic ad-purchasing methods of old.
DMPs assist with the connection of ad inventory to associated advertising space. These independent platforms are essentially data warehouses that allow for data to be collected and analyzed from various sources, which can then be used within algorithm design in order to comprehensively match the most relevant ads to various visitors on publisher sites, improving targeting as a whole.
Last but not least, Ad exchanges are the fundamental entity that make programmatic advertising tic, so to speak. Similar to the dynamics of a stock market trading floor, BSPs and SSPs will connect and agree on a price for inventory.
When all of these pieces of the pie are tied together, the ecosystem functions in its simplest form as follows (ex DMPs which interacts with the process in between the publisher and SSPs as well in between the exchange and DSPs)
Together, the publisher will list inventory on the exchange, leveraging the SSP, and the publisher (through more technological nuances that we won’t cover today) will then relay information to a DMP. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the advertiser will set the parameters they have for their ads, an action that will spur the BSP (DSP) to identify inventory, in conjunction with data provided by the DMP, that aligns with these specifications. The ad exchange will then use data and associated algorithms to match ads to impressions, which will then result in the BSP (DSP) sending the ad to the publisher’s site or digital medium.
With this brief overview of Programmatic Advertising in mind, how exactly does TTD fit within the ecosystem? TTD operates exclusively on the buy side of the equation, an occurrence that they believe provides a unique value proposition to customers. From a basic economic perspective, supply is very elastic, a phenomenon that translates into the buy-side of the transaction being more valuable. Thus, orienting themselves on the side of the transaction with the ad budget, proves to be intelligent business positioning. With that in mind, it is worth delving into how exactly TTD’s platform functions. Starting off on the publisher side of the transaction, said publisher will interact with an SSP, of which will make its way to a host of possible different exchanges. TTD then taps into this ad inventory, hosts a per-impression auction, then allows for clients to access this advertising opportunity if they are the highest bidder. This may sound simple and elegant, however, TTD has a host of technological underpinnings that are worth touching on in order to get a full sense of the capabilities customers can tap into. A driver of the company’s prowess of late was the platform overhaul, denoted as Solimar, announced in the third-quarter of last year. Within, the company focused on redesigning their user interface and creating an ad-buying experience that makes both planning purchases/campaigns and the purchase of the advertisements therein much better. The platform has some notable features, of which I will touch upon briefly, by no means offering a comprehensive overview of the company’s full capabilities. The first are optimizations. Within the TTD platform, buyers can leverage a host of automation capabilities, change the parameters of targeting variables etc., allowing for campaigns to be supported and controlled in a largely hands-off manner.
TTD has also quite clearly bought into becoming a data-driven business. By incorporating their own proprietary data and intertwining both 3rd and 1st party data, what results is a DMP that is powerful when used in conjunction with decisioning tech.
Koa, the company’s artificial intelligence/predictive engine is what really shines here when it leverages the aforementioned data abundance. Koa helps customers achieve campaign success by diving deep into the details, surfacing audience insights and making real-time recommendations accordingly, drives price performance by adjusting bids based on pre-specified KPIs, analyzes historical clearing prices across different auction environments in order to improve spend efficiency and bid optimization and ensures the right cross-device vendors are chosen within the company’s expansive vendor marketplace. With more data, it is more likely that the value prop of this offering continues to improve. Lastly, one of the most exciting developments, in my eyes, is the company’s UID2.0 efforts. This rollout was largely inspired by the happenings in the third-party cookie space, i.e. with tiny pieces of code that are installed within one’s website browsers once they reach a website. Third-party cookies are a little more use-case specific, and allow for advertisers (as examples) to more accurately target consumers with data-driven insights of what said user may have preferences towards (leveraging information provided by said cookies). Cookies have started to be phased out by major companies, with the likes of Apple, Firefox and Google all restricting how cookies can function within their technological ecosystems. Enter UID2.0, a solution that allows for a consumer to log into a website with their email information, receiving a more personalized experience while also gaining insight into how exactly their data is being used. The main benefits of UID2.0 in comparison to third-party cookies are:
Pseudonymity: User’s information is salted, meaning that they are only identified by a string of numbers and letters rather than their real-world identity.
Control: Users can see how their data is being used
Transparency: Once users opt in, they gain access to a more personalized experience and allows for publishers to offer more premium-esque functionality because of the advertising value obtained through this opt-in
With hosts of big name publishers, ssp, and data & measurement partners opting into this service, it is clear that the value-add is being recognized, a proposition that may continue to grow as a third-party cookies fizzle out.
Now that we have an understanding of what programmatic advertising is, how it functions and where TTD fits within said equation, let’s delve into how exactly they make money from all of this.
5.0 How TTD makes $$$
In essence, TTD earns money in two primary manners, the first being money generated through master service agreements (MSAs) between clients, whereas the second is the provision of what I will denote as ancillary services for the sake of simplicity. Starting off with the latter, master service agreements are contracts by where the parties involved agree to the terms that will govern either future transactions or future agreements. In TTD’s case, the master service agreements between themselves and their clients encapsulate the fact that clients will pay them a platform fee, or in other words a percentage of the client’s total spend on the platform itself. Moving on to the former, ancillary services include fees generated from providing clients with data, services and other features related to their platform, but are a much less significant piece of the pie in comparison to its counterpart, as we will delve into more in a second.
6.0 Financial Analysis
We will be delving into TTD’s financials, both on an annual basis and for the company’s most recent earnings release in Q1’22. All dollar values mentioned are in millions of USD.
TTD’s revenue is reported on a net basis. In other words, the metric represents Gross Spend on the platform less the amounts paid to suppliers for the cost of advertising inventory, data, other features, etc. The company’s Revenue has increased tremendously over the last few years in conjunction with the growth of programmatic advertising as a whole, driven by the increase in gross spend attributable to current customers, as well as respectable new customer additions, which we will touch upon later. On an annual basis, top-line came in at approximately $1.2B for 2021, representing a 43% YoY increase and a 40% CAGR since 2017. On a quarterly basis, top-line came in at $315M for Q1’22, representing a 43% increase YoY and 96% Yo2Y increase.
TTD’s Operating Expenses can be split into four main constituents: Platform Operations, Sales and Marketing, Technology and Development and General and Administrative. Platform operations represent the costs associated with hosting the company’s platform, personnel costs, as well as the amortization of technology acquisitions and any capitalized costs related to the development of the platform. S&M is self explanatory, consisting of costs, salaries, SBC associated with the company’s marketing efforts. Technology and Development comprise of the personnel costs, salaries, SBC related to the development of the platform, as well as the integration of said platform with advertising & data suppliers, etc. Lastly, G&A represents the miscellaneous costs associated with running the remainder of the entirety of the company’s business. On an annual basis, Total OPEX came in at approximately $850M, representing a 66% increase YoY and 49% CAGR since 2017, increasing at a faster tape in comparison to top-line.
On a quarterly basis, Total OPEX came in at approximately $269M for Q1’22, representing a 66% and 145% YoY and Yo2Y increase, respectively.
The biggest takeaway here, and a factor to monitor going forwards is the growth in OPEX relative to top-line. It is clear that the company has been focused on investing in their business over the last few years, growing headcount, spurring new initiatives etc. However, we’ve started to see a divergence in the growth of these expenses in comparison to top-line, a phenomenon that may lead to a sustained lack of profitability if continued. Not world-ending by any means, but something to keep an eye on nonetheless as we enter unfavourable macroeconomic conditions where capital is not as plentiful as it once was.
Margins and Profitability
The company’s profitability metrics and associated margins, both annually and for Q1’22, can be seen outlined below:
Clearly, the company has exhibited the ability to be profitable on an Operating, Net Income and EBITDA basis, phenomena displayed on an annual basis and for the majority of the quarterly data above. Zooming in, one can notice a decrease in the company’s margins on an annual basis, as well as a decline into unprofitability over the last two reported quarters, a result of the aforementioned dynamics I alluded to earlier. Again, this is something to keep an eye on as we head into Q2.
TTD has a very strong balance sheet, a refreshing phenomenon when viewed in conjunction with some of its high-flying tech counterparts. The structure of the company’s assets and liabilities, as of Q1’22, can be seen outlined below:
In summary, the company has a strong asset position. Assets are predominantly liquid, with 86% of Total Assets being current. This value consists predominantly of accounts receivable, followed by cash and equivalents and short-term investments in order of descending magnitude. Long Term Assets on the other hand are composed mainly of Operating Lease Assets, PPE and deferred tax assets. Liabilities are predominantly liquid, with 87% being current liabilities, consisting mainly of the company’s accounts payable. Long Term Liabilities are mainly Operating Lease Liabilities. In short, heading into this rising rate environment, TTD is in a good position with its negligible debt position. With EBIT/Interest Expense > 100X at the end of FY’21, TTD is in rare company amidst a zombified Nasdaq:
Cash Flow Statement
On an Annual and Quarterly basis, TTD’s Cash from Operations, Investing and Financing, as well as associated FCF and FCF Margins can be seen outlined below:
Honing in on Q1’22, the company’s CFO came in at approximately $146M. CFI came in as an outflow of approximately $(67)M, attributable mainly to outflows associated with purchases of investments and PPE, offset by maturities of investments.CFF came in at approximately $11M, attributable to an inflow of the proceeds from the exercise of options , offset by taxes paid related to stock awards. The main takeaway from this section can be stated as follows. Despite the fact that the company has made notable progress in the growth of their CFO over the last few years and quarters, the associated FCF and FCF Margin values are predominantly attributable to adjustments made for SBC, a value that has risen higher and higher over the last few years. Despite it being essential to align employees with the business, this value should continue to be monitored by shareholders as it has become quite high, relatively speaking, over the last few years:
7.0 Key Performance Indicators
Before moving on to a general discussion of how i’m looking at TTD’s future, both in a positive and negative light, it is worth delving into some KPIs that give us further insight into how the company is performing under the hood. The first metric of interest is the company’s Gross Spend, a metric that represents the value of client purchases made on the platform plus the addition of TTD’s platform fee, which gives us insight into TTD’s scale as a whole.
Gross Spend came in at approximately $6.17B for the year, representing a 47% YoY increase and a 41% CAGR since 2017, a testament to just how big the company’s platform is. Viewed in conjunction with the company’s extremely high customer retention, a value that has remained 95%+ from 2017-2021 inclusively, customers evidently find TTD’s platform invaluable. In addition, with the exciting growth of TTD’s customer list over the course of the last few years, the company will likely to continue to grow top-line at a reasonable CAGR going forwards:
Despite the commendable growth in this area, the majority of TTD’s current accounts receivables, more than 50% to be exact, are derived from four holding companies. The concentration risk in this area is worth keeping an eye going forwards to ensure that these relationships do not sour in a manner that poses a risk to TTD’s business. Lastly, TTD also has geographic concentration risk, with Gross Billings by location being centred around the US quite heavily, as outlined below:
Despite that fact, management is still optimistic about the long term trajectory of the international opportunity. I found the following expression from their most recent earnings call interesting and worth monitoring going forwards:
“The Trade Desk is in a great position to help those customers and also spin our flywheel. It is still early days for us internationally, but we are optimistic about our market position and the long-term growth opportunity that we have. In terms of the verticals that represent at least 1% of our spend, nearly all of them grew in the double digits during the quarter.”
Now that we have a better understanding of what exactly TTD does and how their business performs under the hood, its time to look at some positive and risk-based factors alike in order to assess what the company’s future trajectory may potentially look like. The first discussion point of interest is the overall growth of CTV and what this means for the company’s future. Anyone familiar with the tech sector has heard about the “cord-cutting” phenomenon, i.e. the rapid abandonment of cable tv in favour of streaming services. The value proposition here is clear, as more and more people migrate to consuming television solely through streaming mediums, the more digital real estate will be available for some form of programmatic advertising, the more TTD’s ecosystem stands to benefit. Take Netflix for example, a company that historically was hesitant to consider advertising on their platform, saw their CEO entertain the possibility within a discussion on their most recent earnings call:
“Related to that, Greg has done great work on the price spread. And one way to increase the price spread is advertising on low-end plans and to have lower prices with advertising. And those who have followed Netflix know that I've been against the complexity of advertising and a big fan of the simplicity of subscription. But as much I'm a fan of that, I'm a bigger fan of consumer choice.
And allowing consumers who would like to have a lower price and are advertising-tolerant get what they want makes a lot of sense. So that's something we're looking at now. We're trying to figure out over the next year or so.”
In addition, during Disney’s earnings call for the second quarter ended April 2022, Bob Chapek confirmed that the company will be introducing an ad-supported subscription offering in the United States by the end of the calendar year as well as internationally in 2023 for Disney+. These developments, viewed in conjunction with the fact that live sports are increasingly being viewed through digital streaming mediums, is exciting to think about when viewed from a programmatic advertising perspective. With millions of people leveraging these services, advertising will become increasingly valuable through these consumption methods.
On the opposite, more negative end of the spectrum, it is worth pondering TTD’s exposure to the cyclicality of the advertising industry as a whole. Put bluntly, the consumer is in rough shape at the moment. If you have been following the macroeconomic data being released lately you would have noticed that inflationary pressures have been leading to hosts of consumer pains, buildups in retail inventory, increased instances of savings rate diminishing and credit cards being utilized, etc. Take for instance, retail sales, values released recently came in negative for the first time this year, as outlined below:
Viewed in conjunction with a dry-up of easy liquidity, the fact that consumer spending is directly responsible for the overall functionality of the businesses of a large majority of companies contained within the index, as well as a potential recession looming over the corner, advertising spending may as companies attempt to lean out their operations in face of poor financial conditions. This phenomenon is omnipresent throughout history, when things are rough, advertising spend gets cut, just take a look at the below figure, and how the rate of change of this value in the US took a hit during the great financial crisis:
On one hand, this is likely to be an evident headwind for the company as a whole, on the other, TTD’s platform was arguably built for times like these. With their endless array of data and associated technology that is able to extract value from every cent of advertising spend, the company’s platform becomes increasingly valuable to companies that are trying to maximize their ROAS amidst poor conditions. In these times, the companies that are the cream of the crop, metaphorically speaking, usually rise to the top while their counterparts struggle to survive, and TTD may very well be one of those companies in the advertising space going forwards.
In the most recent quarter, TTD quite clearly proved that all advertising companies are not built the same. While the likes of snapchat and others were slashing guidance and attributing diminishing prospects to consumer headwinds and geopolitical strifes, TTD was able to reaffirm guidance for the remainder of the year and demonstrate very respectable quarterly numbers. The company has a history of underpromising and overdelivering and if management’s track record means anything to investors, it shouldn’t surprise if that continues. Take a look at the average top-line beat in comparison to guidance, a phenomenon that corroborates these assertions:
Despite that fact, the company has been undergoing severe multiple compression similarly to its high-flying tech counterparts, as outlined below:
Looking at the company’s 2022E, 2023E and 2024E consensus numbers and doing a bit of simple napkin math we can get a general sense if the company has come back down to earth from a valuation perspective. Using consensus top-line estimates, in conjunction with the assumptions that EBIT margins will stabilize at 20%, OCF relative to top-line will be approximately 15% (assuming that SBC comes back down to earth) and CAPEX relative to top-line is approximately 5% we arrive at the following 2024E multiples:
By all accounts, this is an imperfect exercise but nonetheless, it gives you a sense of what the company’s forward valuation looks like with some simple assumptions. In my eyes, the company is still expensive and we have yet to see estimates take into account a recessionary environment where ad spend diminishes, something that I feel is not unlikely but am happy to be proven wrong assuming.
In short if I were to summarize how I’m thinking about TTD going forwards it would be as follows:
The company has a series of tailwinds it stands to benefit from including CTV, UID2.0, helping advertisers maximize ROAS etc.
The company stands to be negatively affected from headwinds such as the weak consumer, and the cyclicality of advertising spend in a poor financial environment
Despite massive re-ratings, the company is still relatively expensive
In short, TTD is an extremely well-run, interesting company that stands to benefit enormously from the digitization of advertising as a whole. I will continue to monitor this story and reevaluate accordingly once I feel the company has reached a more compelling valuation, an occurrence that may not happen given its quality. Thank you for reading my research.
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